‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, local news say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their gas stocks have shrunk with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and officials say cylinders are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

Approximately a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been sparked by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.