A Prediction Market Participant Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro.
An individual profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the US operation.
Sudden Shift in Wagers
Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be out of power by the month's conclusion surged in the hours before former President Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody.
A particular user, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a starting bet of $32,537.
The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement
Market statistics shows that traders assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd.
Yet the odds had increased to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the first hours of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the official statement was made.
"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert.
Several of other traders also made significant sums from predicting the capture.
Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges
Some lawmakers are growing concerned.
A new rule put forward on Monday would prevent public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the United States, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to political events.
The industry were examined under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency.
Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting industry.
An official representative for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."
