Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The mean number of daily murders monthly in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent official data. However, security analysts have advised that murder data might not signal better countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This data was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the least amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an apparently sharper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of the President's security plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and think: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it may hide days when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However in spite of these measures, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas concluded.