Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
