Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
