Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
